非常理解各位小伙伴在复联的时候的紧张和担忧,生怕哪句话说不对然后又被移进了黑名单,更怕自己的信息石沉大海得不到回应。这种焦虑情绪会让你非常害怕去说一些话。但是,你越是不自然,越是紧绷神经,对方越是感受得到,你的需求感就暴露得越明显。 two~ 不企图说服对方 ; 很多小伙伴在沟通中特别容易犯的一个毛病是,必须说服对方,证明对方是错的,证明自己是对的。但是沟通最忌讳的就是沟通对和错了。就算是不在言语论短长,语气上的强硬表态也不行。聪明的人从不在嘴巴上赢过他人,这是很重要的一点。 我们在挽回的时候,要的是有效沟通,不是压制性的说服,即使我们内核本质上,就是为了说服对方重新接纳自己,但是也要披上舒适沟通的外衣。但是很多小伙伴,在这步上做反了,核心本质是为了让对方舒服,给对方自由选择的空间,但是语言上,却是非要说服对方的压倒性态势,那难怪对方不愿意和你过多交流了呢? 交流什么?交流着交流着就容易被你气到。

Day 109 110
Part one
最近打扫卫生又是以外卖为生,吃了一次又少又不正宗的炒刀削……

Part two
咕嘟现在放学都会要去买啵乐乐,昨天放学老师说连中午睡觉都没有哭闹,于是问她想吃什么,一会儿要吃面包,一会儿要吃薯条的~上学以后最大的变化就是吃东西不浪费了,把拼盘里的薯条都吃完了~还不忘带些给爸爸……

Part three
每周的游泳时间不能少啊,二狗子越来越会享受了~黑板贴的不完美,咕嘟一到家就要画画,完美的画到了墙上,有点后悔买了……

Part four
晚上家庭聚会,咕嘟全程都很兴奋,一点都不怯场,一晚上嘴巴不停地说、不停地吃、不停地喝,果然睡醒了出门吃饭状态会好很多……

【帝国理工新冠肺炎流行预测模型被指漏洞百出,误导政府决策】The heralded model United Kingdom experts have largely used to guide their coronavirus policies is “totally unreliable,” according to experts.
The criticisms follow a series of policy turnabouts, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to extend the national lockdown. The United States also used the model, which predicted upwards of 2.2 million deaths in the US without proper action. The prediction helped influence the White House to adopt a more serious approach to the pandemic.
Experts have derided the coding from Professor Neil Ferguson, warning that it is a “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming.”
“In our commercial reality, we would fire anyone for developing code like this and any business that relied on it to produce software for sale would likely go bust,” David Richards, co-founder of British data technology company WANdisco, told the Daily Telegraph.
Ferguson, the virus modeler from Imperial College London and a scientific adviser to the government, warned on March 16 that 500,000 people could die from the pandemic without significant action. Prime Minister Boris Johnson responded by imposing a national lockdown, which has only been loosened within the last week.
The Imperial model works by using code to simulate transport links, population size, social networks and healthcare provisions to predict how coronavirus would spread. Researchers released the code behind it, which developers have criticized as being unreadable.
Scientists from the University of Edinburgh have further claimed that it is impossible to reproduce the same results from the same data using the model. The team got different results when they used different machines, and even different results from the same machines.
“There appears to be a bug in either the creation or re-use of the network file. If we attempt two completely identical runs, only varying in that the second should use the network file produced by the first, the results are quite different,” the Edinburgh researchers wrote on the Github file.
A fix was provided, but it was the first of many bugs found within the program.
“Models must be capable of passing the basic scientific test of producing the same results given the same initial set of parameters…otherwise, there is simply no way of knowing whether they will be reliable,” said Michael Bonsall, Professor of Mathematical Biology at Oxford University.
A spokesperson for the Imperial College COVID19 Response Team said: “The U.K. Government has never relied on a single disease model to inform decision-making. As has been repeatedly stated, decision-making around lockdown was based on a consensus view of the scientific evidence, including several modelling studies by different academic groups.”
“Epidemiology is not a branch of computer science and the conclusions around lockdown rely not on any mathematical model but on the scientific consensus that COVID-19 is a highly transmissible virus with an infection fatality ratio exceeding 0.5pc in the UK.”
As of Saturday, the United Kingdom has confirmed 241,455 cases of coronavirus, behind only the U.S. and Russia; and 34,546 deaths, behind the U.S.
Ferguson himself resigned from his advisory role earlier this month after reports emerged that he defied his own lockdown advice by letting his married lover visit him on two occasions. https://t.cn/Rz1mXw6


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