Terry Smith of Smithfund 2019 annual letter:
1.No one can predict market downturns with any useful level of reliability.
2.However, when one of the repeated warnings proves to be accurate the forecasters will ignore the fact that if you had followed their advice you would have forgone gains which far outweigh your losses in the downturn.
3.Bull markets do not die of old age so ignore warnings which are based on a phrase such as ‘This bull market has gone on for a long time.’ They usually die from some event, often but not always rising interest rates.
4.Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
5.Bull markets do not broaden as they age — they narrow.
6.As for buying so-called value stocks, if you wish to pursue this strategy it is best done after the bear market has struck, not before. An aim for a value investor might be to buy ‘value’ stocks in a downturn when their yield is higher than the P/E.
7.A bear market will occur at some point. We may indeed already be in one. The best stance is to ignore it since you can’t predict it or position yourself effectively to avoid it without impoverishing yourself by forgoing gains. But you have to possess the emotional and financial stability to stick to this stance when it strikes.
8.Growth is always a component in the calculation of value, constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive. https://t.cn/RV9q7Y5
1.No one can predict market downturns with any useful level of reliability.
2.However, when one of the repeated warnings proves to be accurate the forecasters will ignore the fact that if you had followed their advice you would have forgone gains which far outweigh your losses in the downturn.
3.Bull markets do not die of old age so ignore warnings which are based on a phrase such as ‘This bull market has gone on for a long time.’ They usually die from some event, often but not always rising interest rates.
4.Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
5.Bull markets do not broaden as they age — they narrow.
6.As for buying so-called value stocks, if you wish to pursue this strategy it is best done after the bear market has struck, not before. An aim for a value investor might be to buy ‘value’ stocks in a downturn when their yield is higher than the P/E.
7.A bear market will occur at some point. We may indeed already be in one. The best stance is to ignore it since you can’t predict it or position yourself effectively to avoid it without impoverishing yourself by forgoing gains. But you have to possess the emotional and financial stability to stick to this stance when it strikes.
8.Growth is always a component in the calculation of value, constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive. https://t.cn/RV9q7Y5
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《圣经》(《The Holy Bible》)创世记 Genesis 18:10-11:
三人中有一位说：“到明年这时候，我必要回到你这里，你的妻子撒拉必生一个儿子。”撒拉在那人后边的帐棚门口也听见了这话。亚伯拉罕和撒拉年纪老迈，撒拉的月经已断绝了。
And he said, I will certainly return unto thee according to the time of life; and, lo, Sarah thy wife shall have a son. And Sarah heard it in the tent door, which was behind him. Now Abraham and Sarah were old and well stricken in age; and it ceased to be with Sarah after the manner of women.
三人中有一位说：“到明年这时候，我必要回到你这里，你的妻子撒拉必生一个儿子。”撒拉在那人后边的帐棚门口也听见了这话。亚伯拉罕和撒拉年纪老迈，撒拉的月经已断绝了。
And he said, I will certainly return unto thee according to the time of life; and, lo, Sarah thy wife shall have a son. And Sarah heard it in the tent door, which was behind him. Now Abraham and Sarah were old and well stricken in age; and it ceased to be with Sarah after the manner of women.
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