Consumption a greater driver for Chinese economy in 2021
Private consumption could emerge as a greater driver of the Chinese economy in 2021 with the release of increased precautionary savings and a full recovery of the job market, according to a research report from Morgan Stanley.
The investment bank forecast China's real private consumption growth to jump to 12.4 percent year on year in 2021, playing a larger role in driving growth than exports and infrastructure investment.
"We expect the excess savings to be partly released in 2021, as consumer confidence likely improves on the back of a broader job market recovery and a more stable COVID-19 situation domestically," said Robin Xing, chief China economist of the bank, in the co-authored report.
China's household income and saving rates rose this year as a faster recovery in manufacturing and construction partly offset the job market pressure in contact-based service sectors, according to the report.
Official data showed the country's per capita disposable income in Q3 went up by 3.9 percent year on year in nominal terms. The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas improved to 5.3 percent in October, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of September.
Meanwhile, the labor market recovery is expected to expand into contact-based service segments next year, which will also boost consumption, according to Xing.
Though the consumption recovery has been asymmetric in 2020, as spending in segments such as cars and mobile phones greatly improved while that in entertainment, travel, and medical services remained lower than pre-COVID levels, Xing predicted these laggard segments would catch up in 2021 considering improved COVID-19 containment and future vaccine availability.
Combined with a rebound in government consumption on the back of better revenue, overall consumption should contribute 6.7 percentage points to headline GDP growth, according to the report.
Private consumption could emerge as a greater driver of the Chinese economy in 2021 with the release of increased precautionary savings and a full recovery of the job market, according to a research report from Morgan Stanley.
The investment bank forecast China's real private consumption growth to jump to 12.4 percent year on year in 2021, playing a larger role in driving growth than exports and infrastructure investment.
"We expect the excess savings to be partly released in 2021, as consumer confidence likely improves on the back of a broader job market recovery and a more stable COVID-19 situation domestically," said Robin Xing, chief China economist of the bank, in the co-authored report.
China's household income and saving rates rose this year as a faster recovery in manufacturing and construction partly offset the job market pressure in contact-based service sectors, according to the report.
Official data showed the country's per capita disposable income in Q3 went up by 3.9 percent year on year in nominal terms. The surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas improved to 5.3 percent in October, 0.1 percentage points lower than that of September.
Meanwhile, the labor market recovery is expected to expand into contact-based service segments next year, which will also boost consumption, according to Xing.
Though the consumption recovery has been asymmetric in 2020, as spending in segments such as cars and mobile phones greatly improved while that in entertainment, travel, and medical services remained lower than pre-COVID levels, Xing predicted these laggard segments would catch up in 2021 considering improved COVID-19 containment and future vaccine availability.
Combined with a rebound in government consumption on the back of better revenue, overall consumption should contribute 6.7 percentage points to headline GDP growth, according to the report.
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生物科技公司Imara周二宣布了IPO条款。该公司目前处于第二阶段，正在开发针对罕见基因疾病的小分子疗法。这家公司计划通过发行450万股股票筹集7,600万美元，发行价在16 - 18美元之间。按照建议区间的中点，Imara的市值将被完全稀释至3.01亿美元。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、花旗(Citi)和SVB Leerink是这笔交易的联合簿记行。
#新浪看点#硅兔News#美国#
生物科技公司Imara周二宣布了IPO条款。该公司目前处于第二阶段，正在开发针对罕见基因疾病的小分子疗法。这家公司计划通过发行450万股股票筹集7,600万美元，发行价在16 - 18美元之间。按照建议区间的中点，Imara的市值将被完全稀释至3.01亿美元。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、花旗(Citi)和SVB Leerink是这笔交易的联合簿记行。
#新浪看点#硅兔News#美国#
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