5/5
I originally planned to leave on the 5th but Leiwan OM was announced so I paid the fee to return a day later. Indeed a great decision [good][酷]
I could not let this trip end without seeing Elisa!!! I greatly admire how hard she works and she was the first idol I took a cheki with on my last trip so will always hold a special place in my heart! [抱一抱] I was really so happy to catch up about life and see etobrites reformed style. As much as I remember enjoying the old style I found them to be confident in their new style and felt they had improved significantly. The new style is more inline with what I generally like too.
Once again I was so impressed by denpa's performance so had to get cheki. Rei's style and audience engagement drew me in and suprisingly she remembered my from when she was 7S cheki staff last trip [太开心]
I watched begin midnight as the final act. I love their performance so much and wish I had managed to watch them more, godiwish I can go mistfes I got cheki with Sera for the first time too, her voice is so amazing.
I returned to Elisa for after live cheki and she had changed into a beautiful more formal black outfit. I was happy I didn't use all my tokens earlier [哇] I feel bad that I have not kept up to date with her Weibo so have resolved to do so from now on [耶][熊猫] (I'm off to bad start since I spent too much time writing my own silly repos that noone can read [坏笑])
Leiwan's live was truly a crazy experience having that many people packed into YYT. Leiwan for me is the kind of group I don't look forward to but I have the best time ever when I'm there. 4x zikenboppatsu was too stupid and I love it. Thanks again to Shimizu for helping me buy the ticket at the door、助かった
Cheki line was too long so I said some final goodbyes and went out for dinner instead. We had xiao long xia which was so tasty but so tedious to eat [泪] Suprisingly cheki was still going when we finished so I said farewell to my dear friends from dinner and lined up.
I really like Mio's performance and looks but I feel strange about her cheki. The interaction is fun but it feels so fake and a part of me really dislikes it. Nemuko was great and remembered me from Nagoya when I brought up our conversation from last time where she told me to tell my Australian friend she had big おっぱい I regret not talking more with her [泪]
After I had taken the final cheki's of the trip I said my final goodbyes to the ota still there [泪][泪][泪]
I originally planned to leave on the 5th but Leiwan OM was announced so I paid the fee to return a day later. Indeed a great decision [good][酷]
I could not let this trip end without seeing Elisa!!! I greatly admire how hard she works and she was the first idol I took a cheki with on my last trip so will always hold a special place in my heart! [抱一抱] I was really so happy to catch up about life and see etobrites reformed style. As much as I remember enjoying the old style I found them to be confident in their new style and felt they had improved significantly. The new style is more inline with what I generally like too.
Once again I was so impressed by denpa's performance so had to get cheki. Rei's style and audience engagement drew me in and suprisingly she remembered my from when she was 7S cheki staff last trip [太开心]
I watched begin midnight as the final act. I love their performance so much and wish I had managed to watch them more, godiwish I can go mistfes I got cheki with Sera for the first time too, her voice is so amazing.
I returned to Elisa for after live cheki and she had changed into a beautiful more formal black outfit. I was happy I didn't use all my tokens earlier [哇] I feel bad that I have not kept up to date with her Weibo so have resolved to do so from now on [耶][熊猫] (I'm off to bad start since I spent too much time writing my own silly repos that noone can read [坏笑])
Leiwan's live was truly a crazy experience having that many people packed into YYT. Leiwan for me is the kind of group I don't look forward to but I have the best time ever when I'm there. 4x zikenboppatsu was too stupid and I love it. Thanks again to Shimizu for helping me buy the ticket at the door、助かった
Cheki line was too long so I said some final goodbyes and went out for dinner instead. We had xiao long xia which was so tasty but so tedious to eat [泪] Suprisingly cheki was still going when we finished so I said farewell to my dear friends from dinner and lined up.
I really like Mio's performance and looks but I feel strange about her cheki. The interaction is fun but it feels so fake and a part of me really dislikes it. Nemuko was great and remembered me from Nagoya when I brought up our conversation from last time where she told me to tell my Australian friend she had big おっぱい I regret not talking more with her [泪]
After I had taken the final cheki's of the trip I said my final goodbyes to the ota still there [泪][泪][泪]
4/5 / Today's english practice? [费解][顶]
UltimaFes I arrived at around the starting time but I don't really remember anything before あすか. I was surprised she did mainly anisong, but the setlist was high energy and her voice was powerful so I enjoyed it.
Afterwards was 7SINS, there was a larger audience but I felt that just as I had reached peak excitement the performance had ended 透明教室 was afterward and I lost track of time and had to rush to 7S cheki. Maybe if I had lined up earlier I could have queued for another round [伤心]
During cheki I could not seem to overcome the feeling that it was the last meeting. My voice was tired and it was so noisy in the cheki location so I struggled a bit to talk or have anything to speak about in such a state of mind and finished cheki feeling kind of empty.
Afterwards we went to get kebabs and by the time I entered the livehouse for the last live I was feeling good once again [微笑]
The venue decoration was the first thing which I noticed earlier in the day and was so elegant [ok] The setlist started off going all in and didn't seem to stop. It was my first time experiencing a bandset and I enjoyed the much more raw feel. I'm not so familiar with the the newer ultima originals but experiencing them all sequentially was an excellent experience for their final send off.
The strongest memory was undoubtedly the acoustic 绝叫Emotion with everyones repos flashing by, I may have even started to tear up just a little myself. Although I could not understand the text or member's speeches I could feel how much this moment meant to everyone there.
The meaning of the final live is different for me to everyone else I think. They are not really being a part of my life apart from when I come to travel. Yet I still think of them as a special group amongst all the others in China.
My impression is that they were the group to pioneer the Chika idol scene in China and the first group many ota followed. To me they were the first glimpse I got into the Chinese chika idol scene when I was sent me a video of 绝叫Emotion. The video was mainly focused on ota playing lol but I was impressed by how much I enjoyed the song and how much fun everyone had under their stage. This was what first sparked my interest in coming to experience it for myself.
Ultima has directly and indirectly brought me many great memories in enjoying their top tier performance and original songs, playing under their stage and meeting wonderful people. I was even fortunate enough to experience one of their expeditions to Nagoya.
To me the ending feeling is not one of sadness and missing them but maybe more one of gratitude for being able to experience such a group and for the wonderful memories they have given to me.
I've also enjoyed seeing other peoples repos with memories and old pictures of ultima and getting some insight into the journey over the years.
Once again ota were kind to bring me along to dinner. We filmed a short video to MYPΛCIST, rode bikes and then ate delicious spicy food.
UltimaFes I arrived at around the starting time but I don't really remember anything before あすか. I was surprised she did mainly anisong, but the setlist was high energy and her voice was powerful so I enjoyed it.
Afterwards was 7SINS, there was a larger audience but I felt that just as I had reached peak excitement the performance had ended 透明教室 was afterward and I lost track of time and had to rush to 7S cheki. Maybe if I had lined up earlier I could have queued for another round [伤心]
During cheki I could not seem to overcome the feeling that it was the last meeting. My voice was tired and it was so noisy in the cheki location so I struggled a bit to talk or have anything to speak about in such a state of mind and finished cheki feeling kind of empty.
Afterwards we went to get kebabs and by the time I entered the livehouse for the last live I was feeling good once again [微笑]
The venue decoration was the first thing which I noticed earlier in the day and was so elegant [ok] The setlist started off going all in and didn't seem to stop. It was my first time experiencing a bandset and I enjoyed the much more raw feel. I'm not so familiar with the the newer ultima originals but experiencing them all sequentially was an excellent experience for their final send off.
The strongest memory was undoubtedly the acoustic 绝叫Emotion with everyones repos flashing by, I may have even started to tear up just a little myself. Although I could not understand the text or member's speeches I could feel how much this moment meant to everyone there.
The meaning of the final live is different for me to everyone else I think. They are not really being a part of my life apart from when I come to travel. Yet I still think of them as a special group amongst all the others in China.
My impression is that they were the group to pioneer the Chika idol scene in China and the first group many ota followed. To me they were the first glimpse I got into the Chinese chika idol scene when I was sent me a video of 绝叫Emotion. The video was mainly focused on ota playing lol but I was impressed by how much I enjoyed the song and how much fun everyone had under their stage. This was what first sparked my interest in coming to experience it for myself.
Ultima has directly and indirectly brought me many great memories in enjoying their top tier performance and original songs, playing under their stage and meeting wonderful people. I was even fortunate enough to experience one of their expeditions to Nagoya.
To me the ending feeling is not one of sadness and missing them but maybe more one of gratitude for being able to experience such a group and for the wonderful memories they have given to me.
I've also enjoyed seeing other peoples repos with memories and old pictures of ultima and getting some insight into the journey over the years.
Once again ota were kind to bring me along to dinner. We filmed a short video to MYPΛCIST, rode bikes and then ate delicious spicy food.
UFM改革观察：《米莱的美元从何而来》
阿根廷的货币储备并未停止增长。货币分析师对这些进展感到高兴，但购买这些储备的钱从哪里来呢？在本文中，我们将分析阿根廷（BCRA）的资产负债表，试图分析阿根廷货币储备的增长来自何处。
我们首先要确定已被证实的事实。自从哈维尔·米雷上台以来，阿根廷的货币储备总额一直在增长（图一）：
在这一增长中，据分析，阿根廷的货币储备已达到300亿美元，即比上年增长14.57%。另一方面，阿根廷的货币储备也出现净增长（扣除短期内可预见的储备流出）。阿根廷的净储备大幅增长，以至于在上届政府发生货币灾难之后，在短短4个月内，净储备就恢复到良好状态，几乎变为正值（余额为-125亿图二）米莱上任之初的美元）。
因此，虽然看起来一切都很顺利，货币问题开始成为过去，米雷政府虽然成功阻止了卸任政府的货币恶化，但闪光的并不是金子。那我们看看米雷政府这125亿美元从哪里来的？
净货币储备：如何计算？
了解阿根廷货币储备从何而来的关键是看净货币储备的定义。根据国际货币基金组织的说法，该指标的计算从总货币储备（主要是外币和黄金）开始，减去短期（一年以内）的预期储备流出。
从这个意义上说，在计算阿根廷净货币储备时，仅考虑阿根廷（BCRA）必须偿还的短期债务。
如果BCRA为了获取美元而负债一年以上，那么总储备和净储备都会增长，但我们很难说BCRA的股权状况有所改善（最终这将是一个会计技巧，以美元计价的长期债务也反映了未来美元的流出）。
从金融角度来说，我们可以用一种或许更正统的方式来计算净准备金：即总准备金减去BCRA的债务（短期和长期）。也就是说，使用另一种计算净准备金的方法，我们不仅要减去外币的短期债务，还要减去BCRA的长期债务。根据第二种方法，阿根廷的净货币储备将如下所示（图三）：
正如两种方法所示，如果我们将长期债务计入美元，净储备的改善并不是积极的 1 这让我们认为 BCRA 正在通过承担长期债务来增加货币储备，这改善了净储备指标，但并没有改善阿根廷的实际长期货币储备状况。
为了验证我们的论点，我们将看看主要资产和负债项目如何变化，以调查米雷政府购买美元的资金来源。
阿根廷的外汇储备如何增长？：BCRA余额的变化
货币储备是BCRA资产的一项。因此，为了让这个游戏成长，可能会发生以下两种情况之一（或它们的组合）：其他资产项目下降（出售其他资产和购买美元）负债增加（负债增长购买美元） 2
1. BCRA资产变化：
我们先来分析一下BCRA资产 3 的变化（图四）：
在 BCRA 的主要项目中，我们看到货币储备项目是增长最快的项目，远远高于其他项目，总体而言 BCRA 的资产增长了 20%。因此，BCRA 似乎不会通过出售其他资产来购买货币储备。
2. BCRA负债的变化：
我们来分析一下BCRA负债的变化。由于2023年底的贬值影响了部分资产项目（以外币计价的资产），但对其他资产（以本国货币计价的资产）没有影响，我们决定从2024年1月1日开始进行分析 （图五）
乍一看，最引人注目的是BCRA的美元证券，其数量在短短 4 个月内增加了两倍多。国际组织（IMF）债务的偿还也很突出。
BCRA 证券是一个混合体，包括多种类型的债券，通常发行的目的是排出市场上的过剩流动性（以阻止通货膨胀）。考虑到BCRA当前的货币政策是通过回购协议（repos）排出过剩货币，这些证券的增长似乎并不能用货币政策来解释。此外，以比索计价的 BCRA 证券（用于执行货币政策的证券）增长更为温和（如图所示，为 10%）。
因此，BCRA 证券是解释BCRA购买美元方式的完美选择。我们来分析一下米雷上台以来准备金的数量和这些证券的发行情况（图六）。
我们看到，除了米莱政府的第一阶段外，货币储备的增长与美元债券的发行大致同步。自一月初以来，BCRA 发行美元债券的整个做法都是通过名为 BOPREAL（重建自由阿根廷债券） 5 的工具进行的。发行这些债券是为了清偿阿根廷货物进口商的债务。因此，阿根廷储备的增加可能是由于出口中美元的增加以及欠进口商的美元付款的延迟（而不是由于发行了明确目标是购买美元的债券，尽管最终财务结果相同）。
以美元计价的BOPREAL债券发行期限超过一年，因此并不会减少阿根廷的净储备，尽管它们只是推迟美元外流的一种方式。阿根廷储备积累的大约58%是通过发行美元债券来实现的。但这次债券发行是美元的暂时积累，而不是永久积累（尽管它还没有出现在净储备核算的通用方式中） 6 。
结论：
BCRA 积累的储备金比看起来要少。当支持这些购买的债券到期时，其积累的储备中约 60% 将成为货币流出。尽管如此，BCRA 储备积累的 40% 不会导致未来美元外流，这意味着该银行的股本状况确有改善。
阿根廷的货币储备并未停止增长。货币分析师对这些进展感到高兴，但购买这些储备的钱从哪里来呢？在本文中，我们将分析阿根廷（BCRA）的资产负债表，试图分析阿根廷货币储备的增长来自何处。
我们首先要确定已被证实的事实。自从哈维尔·米雷上台以来，阿根廷的货币储备总额一直在增长（图一）：
在这一增长中，据分析，阿根廷的货币储备已达到300亿美元，即比上年增长14.57%。另一方面，阿根廷的货币储备也出现净增长（扣除短期内可预见的储备流出）。阿根廷的净储备大幅增长，以至于在上届政府发生货币灾难之后，在短短4个月内，净储备就恢复到良好状态，几乎变为正值（余额为-125亿图二）米莱上任之初的美元）。
因此，虽然看起来一切都很顺利，货币问题开始成为过去，米雷政府虽然成功阻止了卸任政府的货币恶化，但闪光的并不是金子。那我们看看米雷政府这125亿美元从哪里来的？
净货币储备：如何计算？
了解阿根廷货币储备从何而来的关键是看净货币储备的定义。根据国际货币基金组织的说法，该指标的计算从总货币储备（主要是外币和黄金）开始，减去短期（一年以内）的预期储备流出。
从这个意义上说，在计算阿根廷净货币储备时，仅考虑阿根廷（BCRA）必须偿还的短期债务。
如果BCRA为了获取美元而负债一年以上，那么总储备和净储备都会增长，但我们很难说BCRA的股权状况有所改善（最终这将是一个会计技巧，以美元计价的长期债务也反映了未来美元的流出）。
从金融角度来说，我们可以用一种或许更正统的方式来计算净准备金：即总准备金减去BCRA的债务（短期和长期）。也就是说，使用另一种计算净准备金的方法，我们不仅要减去外币的短期债务，还要减去BCRA的长期债务。根据第二种方法，阿根廷的净货币储备将如下所示（图三）：
正如两种方法所示，如果我们将长期债务计入美元，净储备的改善并不是积极的 1 这让我们认为 BCRA 正在通过承担长期债务来增加货币储备，这改善了净储备指标，但并没有改善阿根廷的实际长期货币储备状况。
为了验证我们的论点，我们将看看主要资产和负债项目如何变化，以调查米雷政府购买美元的资金来源。
阿根廷的外汇储备如何增长？：BCRA余额的变化
货币储备是BCRA资产的一项。因此，为了让这个游戏成长，可能会发生以下两种情况之一（或它们的组合）：其他资产项目下降（出售其他资产和购买美元）负债增加（负债增长购买美元） 2
1. BCRA资产变化：
我们先来分析一下BCRA资产 3 的变化（图四）：
在 BCRA 的主要项目中，我们看到货币储备项目是增长最快的项目，远远高于其他项目，总体而言 BCRA 的资产增长了 20%。因此，BCRA 似乎不会通过出售其他资产来购买货币储备。
2. BCRA负债的变化：
我们来分析一下BCRA负债的变化。由于2023年底的贬值影响了部分资产项目（以外币计价的资产），但对其他资产（以本国货币计价的资产）没有影响，我们决定从2024年1月1日开始进行分析 （图五）
乍一看，最引人注目的是BCRA的美元证券，其数量在短短 4 个月内增加了两倍多。国际组织（IMF）债务的偿还也很突出。
BCRA 证券是一个混合体，包括多种类型的债券，通常发行的目的是排出市场上的过剩流动性（以阻止通货膨胀）。考虑到BCRA当前的货币政策是通过回购协议（repos）排出过剩货币，这些证券的增长似乎并不能用货币政策来解释。此外，以比索计价的 BCRA 证券（用于执行货币政策的证券）增长更为温和（如图所示，为 10%）。
因此，BCRA 证券是解释BCRA购买美元方式的完美选择。我们来分析一下米雷上台以来准备金的数量和这些证券的发行情况（图六）。
我们看到，除了米莱政府的第一阶段外，货币储备的增长与美元债券的发行大致同步。自一月初以来，BCRA 发行美元债券的整个做法都是通过名为 BOPREAL（重建自由阿根廷债券） 5 的工具进行的。发行这些债券是为了清偿阿根廷货物进口商的债务。因此，阿根廷储备的增加可能是由于出口中美元的增加以及欠进口商的美元付款的延迟（而不是由于发行了明确目标是购买美元的债券，尽管最终财务结果相同）。
以美元计价的BOPREAL债券发行期限超过一年，因此并不会减少阿根廷的净储备，尽管它们只是推迟美元外流的一种方式。阿根廷储备积累的大约58%是通过发行美元债券来实现的。但这次债券发行是美元的暂时积累，而不是永久积累（尽管它还没有出现在净储备核算的通用方式中） 6 。
结论：
BCRA 积累的储备金比看起来要少。当支持这些购买的债券到期时，其积累的储备中约 60% 将成为货币流出。尽管如此，BCRA 储备积累的 40% 不会导致未来美元外流，这意味着该银行的股本状况确有改善。
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