【联储开始转向了吗? ——美国7月FOMC点评】兴证宏观 卓泓/彭华莹/王涵:美东时间2022年7月27日,美联储公布加息75bp的利率决议叠加会后鲍威尔新闻发布会,股债双涨,加息预期小幅下行。对此我们认为:
7月会议释放了哪些信号?
• 加息:加息75bp,2022年年底目标中性利率维持在3.25%到3.5%区间;9月会议可能(might)会再次大幅加息(unusually large rate increase),但将放弃前瞻指引,根据数据导向操作;开始考虑后续某个时间点放缓加息步伐;
• 缩表:节奏维持5月FOMC公布的路径,即9月购买上限翻倍(600亿国债+350亿MBS);
• 经济:承认“最近支出和生产指标已经走软”、软着陆面临挑战,不认为当前已衰退。
股债双涨,市场缘何作出鸽派解读:联储指引模糊化且对放缓加息“松口”。FOMC会后(尤其是鲍威尔新闻发布会后),市场作出鸽派解读:纳斯达克单日涨幅超4%,10年期美债收益率一度下行至2.725%而后回升。市场提振的背后:首先是确认75bp的落地——出于6月CPI数据破9有部分投资者押注7月加息100bp(会前对加息100bp的概率有约20%);更重要的是,鲍威尔在发布会上对未来加息路径步伐可能放缓首次“松了口”,先是发言稿谈及未来可能会放缓加息(appropriate to slow the pace of increases),然后在问答环节宣布放弃前瞻指引(go to a meeting by meeting basis and not provide the kind of clear guidance),由于经济下行压力加大,市场可能会倾向认为联储的紧缩节奏将开始放缓。
继押注2023年降息后,市场开始押注12月停止加息。虽然6月联储点阵图指引2023年仍要继续加息,但市场在6月会后就开始押注明年降息。而自7月14日以来,市场对2022年年内加息的预期也快速降温——最新预期年内要再加314bp,相当于此前最鹰的预期少了约一次加息(25bp)。节奏上来看,大部分参与者押注9月加息50bp,11月加息25bp,12月加息的概率已不及50%。
联储模糊指引,市场当前预期的路径能否被“满足”,仍有不确定性。我们在《重访1970:联储如何应对滞vs胀两难》中已经讨论过,即使是沃克尔,联储也无法无视衰退。虽然近期衰退预期升温,但7月中旬以来美股持续回温、包括本次会议的乐观反应,均显示股市在为联储可能的放松做定价。往后看,未来风险显然在于,联储是否能如市场当前所愿。这仍将取决于经济降温的速度(尤其是就业市场放缓的速度)和通胀降温速度的赛跑(尤其是能源及粮食供应后续是否会再出“幺蛾子”)。值得注意的是,三季度通胀读数预期仍在高位,白宫7月21日对“连续两个季度负增长未必等于衰退”的讨论也显示目前的政治上经济政策的重心仍在抗通胀。因此,对于联储表态和美股美债而言,现在谈拐点可能太为乐观——“紧缩”的风险仍没有完全解除。
风险提示:美国通胀持续性超预期,联储货币政策收紧超预期。#分析师研报#https://t.cn/A6aBIPBn
7月会议释放了哪些信号?
• 加息:加息75bp,2022年年底目标中性利率维持在3.25%到3.5%区间;9月会议可能(might)会再次大幅加息(unusually large rate increase),但将放弃前瞻指引,根据数据导向操作;开始考虑后续某个时间点放缓加息步伐;
• 缩表:节奏维持5月FOMC公布的路径,即9月购买上限翻倍(600亿国债+350亿MBS);
• 经济:承认“最近支出和生产指标已经走软”、软着陆面临挑战,不认为当前已衰退。
股债双涨,市场缘何作出鸽派解读:联储指引模糊化且对放缓加息“松口”。FOMC会后(尤其是鲍威尔新闻发布会后),市场作出鸽派解读:纳斯达克单日涨幅超4%,10年期美债收益率一度下行至2.725%而后回升。市场提振的背后:首先是确认75bp的落地——出于6月CPI数据破9有部分投资者押注7月加息100bp(会前对加息100bp的概率有约20%);更重要的是,鲍威尔在发布会上对未来加息路径步伐可能放缓首次“松了口”,先是发言稿谈及未来可能会放缓加息(appropriate to slow the pace of increases),然后在问答环节宣布放弃前瞻指引(go to a meeting by meeting basis and not provide the kind of clear guidance),由于经济下行压力加大,市场可能会倾向认为联储的紧缩节奏将开始放缓。
继押注2023年降息后,市场开始押注12月停止加息。虽然6月联储点阵图指引2023年仍要继续加息,但市场在6月会后就开始押注明年降息。而自7月14日以来,市场对2022年年内加息的预期也快速降温——最新预期年内要再加314bp,相当于此前最鹰的预期少了约一次加息(25bp)。节奏上来看,大部分参与者押注9月加息50bp,11月加息25bp,12月加息的概率已不及50%。
联储模糊指引,市场当前预期的路径能否被“满足”,仍有不确定性。我们在《重访1970:联储如何应对滞vs胀两难》中已经讨论过,即使是沃克尔,联储也无法无视衰退。虽然近期衰退预期升温,但7月中旬以来美股持续回温、包括本次会议的乐观反应,均显示股市在为联储可能的放松做定价。往后看,未来风险显然在于,联储是否能如市场当前所愿。这仍将取决于经济降温的速度(尤其是就业市场放缓的速度)和通胀降温速度的赛跑(尤其是能源及粮食供应后续是否会再出“幺蛾子”)。值得注意的是,三季度通胀读数预期仍在高位,白宫7月21日对“连续两个季度负增长未必等于衰退”的讨论也显示目前的政治上经济政策的重心仍在抗通胀。因此,对于联储表态和美股美债而言,现在谈拐点可能太为乐观——“紧缩”的风险仍没有完全解除。
风险提示:美国通胀持续性超预期,联储货币政策收紧超预期。#分析师研报#https://t.cn/A6aBIPBn
In May and June, as the effect of various policies began to set in,key economic indicators suggested a rebound.For example, the added value of large- scale industries and manufacturing PMI picked up and the urban surveyed unemployment rate has been dropping。Investment played a pivotal role in
spurring economic growth in the first six months.
spurring economic growth in the first six months.
#致敬创造力# #生态# #绿色#【Rice, fish team up in successful project】An agricultural practice integrated with fish breeding and rice planting within a single pond will be promoted in nine cities across the Pearl River Delta region, following a recent harvest in the experimental project in the Nansha district of Guangzhou, Guangdong province.
After nearly four months of planting rice in pilot ponds, which are traditionally only for fish husbandry, a large area of early rice in Nansha entered its harvest season, with the highest output volume reaching 5,580 kilograms per hectare, according to the Guangdong Agricultural Technology Promotion Center.
"The practice, in which rice is planted in freshwater ponds and fish inhabit the water, has proved successful initially, with increased output of early-season rice," said Wu Yuli, a senior engineer at the center, which is affiliated with the Guangdong Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
source: https://t.cn/A6aBfQLT
After nearly four months of planting rice in pilot ponds, which are traditionally only for fish husbandry, a large area of early rice in Nansha entered its harvest season, with the highest output volume reaching 5,580 kilograms per hectare, according to the Guangdong Agricultural Technology Promotion Center.
"The practice, in which rice is planted in freshwater ponds and fish inhabit the water, has proved successful initially, with increased output of early-season rice," said Wu Yuli, a senior engineer at the center, which is affiliated with the Guangdong Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
source: https://t.cn/A6aBfQLT
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